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<blockquote data-quote="Marguerite" data-source="post: 400482" data-attributes="member: 1991"><p>Over 90 people now reported missing. Official death toll is 10, but as time moves on it is looking very bad for most of those who are missing.</p><p></p><p>Brisbane is expecting 5.5 metres at 4 am tomorrow. How can they be so sure? The computer modelling is very accurate and is taking into account the rain upstream, the tides and the unfortunately necessary dam releases.</p><p></p><p>The last bad floods in Brisbane were in 1973/74. My boyfriend t the time had a brother in the flood-washed area of Brisbane, so I remember it well. After tat flood, they built a dam above Brisbane. The purpose of the dam was to provide water for Brisbane (of course) but mostly to prevent this sort of flooding. And it has, until now. But the dam is at almost 200% capacity (the extra 100% is the flood buffer) and they said if it goes over 200% they can't control the releases. So they have had to release some water now, to prevent</p><p></p><p>1) dam burst; and </p><p></p><p>2) uncontrolled water release later.</p><p></p><p>The water in the Brisbane River doesn't all come from the dam. There are other rivers, not controlled, that pour in. Plus the king tides at the moment (one king high due tomorrow morning Brisbane time) which will block the outflow of floodwater, and make the flood as high as it will be. They expect over 100,000 homes will be affected. All of those people will have been contacted by now and urged to get to higher ground and protect their property. Given advance notice, people can do things like move appliances to, say, a storage facility on higher ground and protect precious personal effects. Especially their own skins!</p><p></p><p>We have family in the Gold Coast, they say they're fine but I know they are on the side of a hill with a creek alongside their property. Toowoomba is halfway up the mountains, and they had that massive torrent hit them. My nephew's place is on the top of a hill; he said, if his place goes under, we'd better build an Ark.</p><p></p><p>With the whole management of it all - all emergency services have swung into action. The army has been involved since before Christmas, purely to help get people off roofs, manage evacuation, keep records, provide food/fodder drops. husband mentioned how years ago (actually, about the same time as the 1973/74 Brisbane floods, I think) he was on an army exercise in a flood area (not Brisbane) which got called off so they could be recruited to flood relief work.</p><p></p><p>Ahead of the floods, towns and villages are being evacuated. People are being encouraged to help neighbours and friends. The emergency services are mostly staffed by locals who know their area as well as their people. I know from experience, as you get evacuated, your name is taken and notes are made as to where you are going (if anywhere). The police are involved; the army; the Red Cross; the Salvation Army; the fire brigades (bushfire as well as rural as well as national); various other specialised emergency services. The Queensland premier mentioned yesterday a mob called the Fast Water Rescue Services (or similar), and they're all out there pitching in. Helicopters are helping where they can fly. The heavy storms have prevented the chopper movement but in the wake of the storms, they're out there looking for people and directing rescue efforts.</p><p></p><p>So with all this involvement and organisation, when they say, "90 people are missing", then they will know the names of those people, their ages, where they live and where they were last seen. And when. They will already have a good idea of their chances. They fully expect to find a lot of bodies when the floods recede, but that could be weeks.</p><p></p><p>I was looking at more video online last night and people were saying that when the torrent hit 9and more torrents have hit other towns downstream) that houses were smashed off their footings and washed downstream. But the videos also said, "I could hear the screams of the people inside."</p><p></p><p>I mentioned earlier in this thread, that people in this area build on stilts a lot, because it's safer in a flood. But tis flood has reached the houses on the stilts, and those ones were the ones washed away. The few houses built on the ground were swamped long ago, the occupants long gone, mostly to shelters.</p><p></p><p>Because it's school holidays, the evac centres are being set up in schools on higher ground. We're sticking with the ABC (the national broadcaster, government owned) for most accurate reporting. The ABC reporter in one town (I think it might have been Ipswitch) said he and his cameraman spent the night in Grade 5's classroom, with a family who had lost their house.</p><p></p><p>Power is off - floods short stuff out, plus the coal-fired power stations are running out of coal. They don't have much hydro in Queensland - not enough mountains that are high enough. As I said before, this is a flat country.</p><p></p><p>Telephone towers will hve gone, which puts stress on remaining mobile services. In the more inland areas satellites are used. Mobile phones are keeping people in touch and helping services find people who are still OK but isolated.</p><p></p><p>This flood, just the Queensland impact, is forecast to lose 1% of our GDP in lost exports alone.</p><p></p><p>Other problems - floods are now in NSW up north. Flooding is on both sides of the Great Dividing Range (inland and coastal). Heavy rain in Victoria is causing flooding, although not as severe. And on the other side of the country, Western Australia is suffering Catastrophic bushfires. Catastrophic is a new rating, tacked on to the extreme end of out bushfire rating system. zit is the level at which lives will be lost and you should not stay with your house. it is the level that burned so much, two years ago. And it is slipping below the news radar because over here in the east, we're waterlogged. It's just a shame we can't ship over some of the excess water!</p><p></p><p>This is some of the consequence of global warming. El Nino/La Nina is a natural cycle. However, global warming is pushing things to extremes. The heavier snowfalls are also, paradoxically, connected to global warming. Not all incidents are heat-related!</p><p></p><p>The area where the WA fires are, we have visited one summer. Mandurah. I remember almost being in a panic because we needed to find water for the children. We were able to buy soft drink, there were a few shops open, but there was no water. I knew sugary drinks were a bad idea, likely to cause more dehydration. Finally we found a picnic area with taps. Most of the taps were dry, but one right up the back was attached to a rainwater tank and there was some water in that, at a trickle. We filled up a water bottle and let the kids have a drink. I'm sure I saw that park in the news last night. All burnt, with black sticks in bare ground.</p><p></p><p>The forecast - rain is predicted all down the east coast of Australia and there is no let-up in the near future. The news is on (I'm now on a commercial station) and the cameras are showing the Brisbane River rising as you watch. People have been told to make sure their boats are secured, but the news crews are reporting boats plus their pontoons, floating down the river being pursued by water police. There is a waterside restaurant called "Drift". That is what it is doing.</p><p></p><p>Brisbane is still setting up more evac centres. The showground is in use, but they will ned a lot more.</p><p></p><p>Still no change in the death toll from the torrent the other day. But the number of missing people is rising. After the Brisbane and Ipswitch flood peaks, I'm afraid there will be more.</p><p></p><p>All services and resources are working well together, to keep people as safe as possible. Police have the powers to make people leave, and tis is saving lives, I am sure.</p><p></p><p>Brisbane is already starting to go under. Some suburbs are already underwater. Sometimes total strangers are stopping to help people pack and get out. The crazy ting - the sun in Brisbane is shining. It's a beautiful day. But as the premier Anna Bligh said, "the rain has already fallen upstream. The damage is done. The water is on the way and we can't stop it."</p><p></p><p>A quick note about our political system - our national leader is a Prime Minister (Julia Gillard). The opposing political party is led by Tony Abbot (called the Opposition leader). Each state has a Premier. Each of these leaders heads a government (of Shadow government, in the Opposition leader's case). The Qld premier is Anna Bligh, the NSW premier is Christine Keneally. The official head of state, however, is the Governor General, the Queen's representative. It's the GG who swears in the PM and the PM's ministers. And our GG is also a woman, for the first time ever. So in the last year or so, we've had the first NSW female premier, the first female GG and the first female PM.</p><p></p><p>Right now, the PM is speaking to a news conference detailing payments to help people recover from the floods. She's also arranged for Sea King choppers to come in and help evacuate the suburbs of Brisbane before the inundation.</p><p></p><p>They just announced the availability and location of sandbags, and also said Ipswitch will be cut in half some time between 2 pm and 4 pm. The careful computer modelling is helping people prepare more effectively.</p><p></p><p>Here is a link about Brisbane. There are also video links in this story. Brisbane is a major city. It'd the third biggest in population in Australia, with 2 million people. Evacuating that many people is a huge task.</p><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/12/3111075.htm" target="_blank">http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/12/3111075.htm</a></p><p></p><p>Police have declared the town of Grantham as a crime scene. I think this is because of the chance that Toowoomba bodies ended up here. The water from that torrent that hit Toowoomba is part of what will hit Brisbane tonight.</p><p></p><p>Marg</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Marguerite, post: 400482, member: 1991"] Over 90 people now reported missing. Official death toll is 10, but as time moves on it is looking very bad for most of those who are missing. Brisbane is expecting 5.5 metres at 4 am tomorrow. How can they be so sure? The computer modelling is very accurate and is taking into account the rain upstream, the tides and the unfortunately necessary dam releases. The last bad floods in Brisbane were in 1973/74. My boyfriend t the time had a brother in the flood-washed area of Brisbane, so I remember it well. After tat flood, they built a dam above Brisbane. The purpose of the dam was to provide water for Brisbane (of course) but mostly to prevent this sort of flooding. And it has, until now. But the dam is at almost 200% capacity (the extra 100% is the flood buffer) and they said if it goes over 200% they can't control the releases. So they have had to release some water now, to prevent 1) dam burst; and 2) uncontrolled water release later. The water in the Brisbane River doesn't all come from the dam. There are other rivers, not controlled, that pour in. Plus the king tides at the moment (one king high due tomorrow morning Brisbane time) which will block the outflow of floodwater, and make the flood as high as it will be. They expect over 100,000 homes will be affected. All of those people will have been contacted by now and urged to get to higher ground and protect their property. Given advance notice, people can do things like move appliances to, say, a storage facility on higher ground and protect precious personal effects. Especially their own skins! We have family in the Gold Coast, they say they're fine but I know they are on the side of a hill with a creek alongside their property. Toowoomba is halfway up the mountains, and they had that massive torrent hit them. My nephew's place is on the top of a hill; he said, if his place goes under, we'd better build an Ark. With the whole management of it all - all emergency services have swung into action. The army has been involved since before Christmas, purely to help get people off roofs, manage evacuation, keep records, provide food/fodder drops. husband mentioned how years ago (actually, about the same time as the 1973/74 Brisbane floods, I think) he was on an army exercise in a flood area (not Brisbane) which got called off so they could be recruited to flood relief work. Ahead of the floods, towns and villages are being evacuated. People are being encouraged to help neighbours and friends. The emergency services are mostly staffed by locals who know their area as well as their people. I know from experience, as you get evacuated, your name is taken and notes are made as to where you are going (if anywhere). The police are involved; the army; the Red Cross; the Salvation Army; the fire brigades (bushfire as well as rural as well as national); various other specialised emergency services. The Queensland premier mentioned yesterday a mob called the Fast Water Rescue Services (or similar), and they're all out there pitching in. Helicopters are helping where they can fly. The heavy storms have prevented the chopper movement but in the wake of the storms, they're out there looking for people and directing rescue efforts. So with all this involvement and organisation, when they say, "90 people are missing", then they will know the names of those people, their ages, where they live and where they were last seen. And when. They will already have a good idea of their chances. They fully expect to find a lot of bodies when the floods recede, but that could be weeks. I was looking at more video online last night and people were saying that when the torrent hit 9and more torrents have hit other towns downstream) that houses were smashed off their footings and washed downstream. But the videos also said, "I could hear the screams of the people inside." I mentioned earlier in this thread, that people in this area build on stilts a lot, because it's safer in a flood. But tis flood has reached the houses on the stilts, and those ones were the ones washed away. The few houses built on the ground were swamped long ago, the occupants long gone, mostly to shelters. Because it's school holidays, the evac centres are being set up in schools on higher ground. We're sticking with the ABC (the national broadcaster, government owned) for most accurate reporting. The ABC reporter in one town (I think it might have been Ipswitch) said he and his cameraman spent the night in Grade 5's classroom, with a family who had lost their house. Power is off - floods short stuff out, plus the coal-fired power stations are running out of coal. They don't have much hydro in Queensland - not enough mountains that are high enough. As I said before, this is a flat country. Telephone towers will hve gone, which puts stress on remaining mobile services. In the more inland areas satellites are used. Mobile phones are keeping people in touch and helping services find people who are still OK but isolated. This flood, just the Queensland impact, is forecast to lose 1% of our GDP in lost exports alone. Other problems - floods are now in NSW up north. Flooding is on both sides of the Great Dividing Range (inland and coastal). Heavy rain in Victoria is causing flooding, although not as severe. And on the other side of the country, Western Australia is suffering Catastrophic bushfires. Catastrophic is a new rating, tacked on to the extreme end of out bushfire rating system. zit is the level at which lives will be lost and you should not stay with your house. it is the level that burned so much, two years ago. And it is slipping below the news radar because over here in the east, we're waterlogged. It's just a shame we can't ship over some of the excess water! This is some of the consequence of global warming. El Nino/La Nina is a natural cycle. However, global warming is pushing things to extremes. The heavier snowfalls are also, paradoxically, connected to global warming. Not all incidents are heat-related! The area where the WA fires are, we have visited one summer. Mandurah. I remember almost being in a panic because we needed to find water for the children. We were able to buy soft drink, there were a few shops open, but there was no water. I knew sugary drinks were a bad idea, likely to cause more dehydration. Finally we found a picnic area with taps. Most of the taps were dry, but one right up the back was attached to a rainwater tank and there was some water in that, at a trickle. We filled up a water bottle and let the kids have a drink. I'm sure I saw that park in the news last night. All burnt, with black sticks in bare ground. The forecast - rain is predicted all down the east coast of Australia and there is no let-up in the near future. The news is on (I'm now on a commercial station) and the cameras are showing the Brisbane River rising as you watch. People have been told to make sure their boats are secured, but the news crews are reporting boats plus their pontoons, floating down the river being pursued by water police. There is a waterside restaurant called "Drift". That is what it is doing. Brisbane is still setting up more evac centres. The showground is in use, but they will ned a lot more. Still no change in the death toll from the torrent the other day. But the number of missing people is rising. After the Brisbane and Ipswitch flood peaks, I'm afraid there will be more. All services and resources are working well together, to keep people as safe as possible. Police have the powers to make people leave, and tis is saving lives, I am sure. Brisbane is already starting to go under. Some suburbs are already underwater. Sometimes total strangers are stopping to help people pack and get out. The crazy ting - the sun in Brisbane is shining. It's a beautiful day. But as the premier Anna Bligh said, "the rain has already fallen upstream. The damage is done. The water is on the way and we can't stop it." A quick note about our political system - our national leader is a Prime Minister (Julia Gillard). The opposing political party is led by Tony Abbot (called the Opposition leader). Each state has a Premier. Each of these leaders heads a government (of Shadow government, in the Opposition leader's case). The Qld premier is Anna Bligh, the NSW premier is Christine Keneally. The official head of state, however, is the Governor General, the Queen's representative. It's the GG who swears in the PM and the PM's ministers. And our GG is also a woman, for the first time ever. So in the last year or so, we've had the first NSW female premier, the first female GG and the first female PM. Right now, the PM is speaking to a news conference detailing payments to help people recover from the floods. She's also arranged for Sea King choppers to come in and help evacuate the suburbs of Brisbane before the inundation. They just announced the availability and location of sandbags, and also said Ipswitch will be cut in half some time between 2 pm and 4 pm. The careful computer modelling is helping people prepare more effectively. Here is a link about Brisbane. There are also video links in this story. Brisbane is a major city. It'd the third biggest in population in Australia, with 2 million people. Evacuating that many people is a huge task. [url]http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/12/3111075.htm[/url] Police have declared the town of Grantham as a crime scene. I think this is because of the chance that Toowoomba bodies ended up here. The water from that torrent that hit Toowoomba is part of what will hit Brisbane tonight. Marg [/QUOTE]
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