We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April - WSJ Opinion


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We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April - WSJ Opinion

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.


Well-Known Member
I get my first vaccine a week from today. My husband got his first one this week. Hoping the numbers keep going down. The new strains are a little worrisome, though. Ksm

in a daze

Well-Known Member
I read this article and I think it’s much too optimistic. All the public health docs I read and listen to are seriously worried about the UK variant taking over. Husband and I got our second shots on Tuesday. Son gets his in a week. I had fatigue and a sore arm afterwards. Hubs had a bad reaction with fever chills wiped out but is fine now. Totally worth it! Praying it all ends soon.

Deni D

Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass.
Ah, yeah no. We will see what actually will happen when it happens, how long immunity lasts, if this crap turns out to be something that warrants a yearly (different strain vaccine) or whatever. After my experiences last winter into the spring I'll wear a mask, keep out of any and all enclosed environments. I don't need to eat in a restaurant with asinine rules where I have to wear a mask walking to a table but then can sit there breathing the same air as everyone else for the next hour. I don't need any loud crowded rowdy gettogethers with anyone, for any freaking reason. I will only have close contact with other people being as careful as I am until I know what is really going on. I am not "hiding in my basement". I am out in the fresh air, at the beach, on my bike, on my kayak, doing pool aerobics and social distancing with other like, "life", minded people while being respectful of myself and others.


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I'm very optimistic. Had both vaccines. But will go with the flow.
When COVID hit we had no trouble finding things to do at home. Whatever happens happens but I will start seeing people again with a mask and social distancing. 💓


100% better than I was but not at 100% yet
Husband and I had mild cases in December. Living our life but we're on the coast so it's not as strict. We've taken some chances but I do not believe anything we do determines our demise.

I can get a vaccine as an essential Alabama worker now but waiting for husband to also be able to get it and want to get the J&J vaccine. I'll leave mine now for someone that really needs it.

I am ready to put it all behind us definitely!!


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Ok, this is an older thread. But.

My opinion? Its now July, and cases are rising even amung the vaccinated. Herd immunity, i do believe some can achieve that with or without the shots. They have.

As far as others, its not just the elder or underlining health issues(sadly makes it worse) but any ages.

Mask Mandates? Social distance? I believe fully in them. I was around a coworker who had covid. I never got it. Why? Masks! Yes few have gotten it while doing the safe practices but still. Im extremely worried for all the children who dont /arent allowed wear masks. Adults too. There are clear face masks to see facial expressions. Plus, if medical personal can wear a mask between 8-12"hours each shift, why cant we?

I am scared either from getting the shot or not. But, im planning on getting it asap.